Weather: Warnings
The question
To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what evidence his Department is gathering to inform future rainfall assumptions in flood prediction modelling.
Answered by Emma Hardy
The Environment Agency (EA) uses a range of future rainfall assumptions in their flood prediction modelling including consideration for how our weather patterns are changing.
The EA operates a network of approximately 2,400 rain gauges across England, providing daily totals and high-resolution data. The data is shared with the Met Office, and we work closely with them and other partners, to maintain and improve our understanding of future rainfall scenarios. This, and other information, is used to inform how we issue flood warnings to the public.
In the last month the EA has updated their maps showing current and future understanding of flood risk. For the first time this new National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA), includes the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) sharing the potential impact of climate change on flood risk, and shows that the risk from rivers and the sea in England increases by 27% from 2036 to 2069.
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