Public Expenditure
The question
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make an estimate of the projected percentage of Government spending as a proportion of GDP at the end of this Parliament.
Answered by Darren Jones
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) last forecast for Total Managed Expenditure (TME) as a % of GDP ahead of 5 July 2024 is available in Table 2.3 (p29) of the Spring Budget 2024 document.
However, the OBR subsequently published a review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits, in which it set out that information about large spending pressures was not shared with them ahead of this forecast, and that “had this information been made available, a materially different judgement about RDEL spending in 2024-25 would have been reached”.
As of today, the OBR’s latest forecast for TME as a % of GDP is available in Table A.1 (p41) of the Spring Statement 2025 document.
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