Personal Independence Payment

We estimate that in 2029/30, for those affected by the proposed changes to the PIP eligibility criteria, 1,200 claimants will be also subject to the benefit cap. This estimate assumes that people potentially subject to the benefit cap are no more, and no less, likely than other people affected by the proposed changes to change their behaviour to continue to qualify for PIP and the estimate is subject to revision.

Estimates of the volumes of PIP claimants affected by the reform in the future are forecast for England and Wales only and therefore have not been broken down by Parliamentary Constituency or any other geographic area.

After accounting for behavioural changes, the OBR predicts that 9 out 10 PIP recipients at the time of policy implementation are expected to be unaffected by the PIP 4-point change in 2029/30. No one will lose access to PIP immediately - and most people will not lose access at all. Our intention is that changes will start to come into effect from November 2026 for PIP, subject to parliamentary approval. After that date, no one will lose PIP without first being reassessed by a trained assessor or healthcare professional, who assesses individual needs and circumstance. Reassessments happen on average every 3 years. People who continue to receive a PIP mobility component will remain exempt from the benefit cap.

We are consulting on how best to support those who are affected by the new eligibility changes, including ensuring health and care needs are met.

We have also announced a wider review of the PIP assessment to make it fair and fit for purpose, which I am leading. We are bringing together a range of experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience to consider how best to do this. We will provide further details as plans progress.

Even with these reforms, the overall number of people on PIP and DLA is expected to rise by 750,000 by the end of this parliament and spending will rise from £23bn in 24/25 to £31bn in 29/30.