UK Trade with EU
The question
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent assessment she has made of the potential impact of leaving the European Union on economic growth.
Answered by Lucy Rigby
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the government’s official forecaster. The OBR have included assessments of the economic impacts of leaving the EU in its forecasts since 2016. In March 2020, the OBR estimated that GDP will be 4 per cent lower in the long run than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU, an impact which the Chancellor has said is severe and long-lasting, and that imports and exports will eventually both be 15 per cent lower than had we stayed in the EU. As of the Spring Budget 2025, these assumptions are unchanged from its previous assessment.
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