Fiscal Policy
The question
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2026, what fiscal headroom the Government is forecast to have against its fiscal rules in each year of the forecast period; what sensitivity analysis has been undertaken by the Office for Budget Responsibility regarding changes in growth, interest rates or inflation; and what assessment she has made of the level of risks to the Government’s ability to meet its fiscal targets.
Answered by Torsten Bell
In line with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s mandate, the OBR did not provide a formal assessment of performance against the fiscal rules at the Spring forecast on 3 March. The fiscal rules will be formally assessed alongside the Budget.
As the Chancellor said in her speech to the House, the forecast shows headroom against the stability rule has increased since the Budget from £21.7bn at the Budget to £23.6bn in 2029-30, which is the target year, meaning greater resilience against shocks and stability in the economy. Headroom against the investment rule is also higher at £27.1bn in 2029-30.
As an independent body, the OBR has full discretion over its forecast methodology and the judgements underpinning its forecasts. As is standard, the March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlooks included sensitivity analysis around key economic variables and highlighted upside and downside risks to its central forecast
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