Prisoners' Release: Sexual Offences

I extend my sincere sympathy to all victims of these appalling crimes. This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model which will help ensure there are always enough places for the courts to be able to send people to custody in order to keep the public safe. The worst thing for victims would be running out of prison space and not being able to lock up dangerous offenders.

The progression model amends release points for offenders on standard determinate sentences.

As a result of the new release points, some offenders currently in prison will be eligible for earlier release. To ensure the release of these prisoners is done as safely as possible, prisoners will be released in ten monthly tranches, running from 2 September 2026 to June 2027. Offenders serving more serious sentences like Extended Determinate Sentences or life sentences will be unaffected by these reforms and will remain in prison for as long as they do now.

It is not possible to know future release data precisely so far in advance, because eligible offenders might be sentenced to prison between now and the commencement date for tranche 1 of the progression model on 2 September 2026. Nor do we know any added days for bad behaviour committed between now and the final tranche in June 2027.

The Ministry of Justice routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.