Prisoners
The question
To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, whether his Department has prepared updated prison population projections; what modelling he has undertaken on prison occupancy under high, central and low demand scenarios; whether contingency plans exist for exceeding operational capacity; and if he will publish the latest internal modelling.
Answered by Jake Richards
The Ministry of Justice publishes annual prison population projections for England and Wales in the Prison Capacity Annual Statement. The 2025 Annual Statement is available here: Annual Statement on Prison Capacity: 2025 - GOV.UK. The next Statement is scheduled for publication this winter.
We continually monitor the prison population and use a range of planning assumptions to monitor future demand of prison places. Our published and have established contingency arrangements should acute capacity pressures arise.
The Government has taken decisive action to put the prison system on a sustainable footing, including through the largest prison expansion programme since the Victorian era, and the landmark reforms in the Sentencing Act 2026, which ensure we will never again have more prisoners than prison places.
As set out in the annual statement, when the estimated impact of the Sentencing Act measures are factored in, supply is expected to keep pace with demand for the total adult estate.
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