EU Budget: Contributions
The question
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the OBR forecasts published in the answer of 29 June 2026, to Question 11413, on Council tax, and with reference to table 4.15: Assumed annual path of EU financial settlement in the forecast horizon, for what reason payments to the EU are forecast to be negative in 2030.
Answered by Treasury
The Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of the EU Financial Settlement is presented on a net basis and reflects both payments from the UK to the European Union and receipts by the UK arising from the Financial Settlement.
The forecast negative value in 2030 shown in Table 4.15 reflects the expectation that receipts associated with the Financial Settlement will exceed payments in that year. As set out in HM Treasury’s annual European Union Finances Statement, the Financial Settlement is a methodology for settling obligations rather than a fixed sum. Consequently, both the timing and value of annual net flows depend on outturn factors, including invoices received and receipts due to the UK.
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