Prisoners' Release

This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model, which will help ensure there are always enough prison places for the courts to be able to send people to custody.

The Prime Minister’s review informed decisions relating to implementation of the progression model and subsequent offence exclusions. The Government carefully considered concerns raised by victims, survivors, parliamentarians and the wider public and acted on those concerns. Representations received from Thames Valley police, other policing stakeholders, and a range of victims including the family of PC Harper during the review formed part of the evidence considered as part of that process. Ministers continue to engage with a range of stakeholders on implementation.

As a result, offenders convicted of unlawful killing offence such as manslaughter, causing death by dangerous driving, as well as further historic child sex offences, will now be excluded, on top of rape and serious child sex offences. This also includes offenders convicted of offences involving the killing of an emergency worker. A full list of exclusions can be found here: Sentencing Act 2026 offence exclusions - GOV.UK.

These exclusions are in addition to the existing exclusion of more than 18,000 offenders serving more serious sentences.

The progression model amends release points for offenders serving Standard Determinate Sentences.

The date from which the progression model will apply, and the date of the first tranche of releases is 1 October 2026. Offenders released under the progression model will be controlled under strict licence conditions and can be recalled to custody where they breach those conditions or their risk can no longer be safely managed in the community.

We have published the modelled estimates of the volumes of offenders to be released on the first day of each tranche. Current published estimates do not identify releases from individual prisons, including HMP Isle of Wight. This information is now available at: Sentencing Act 2026 offence exclusions - GOV.UK.

Work is underway to implement the change announced, including the completion of complex sentence calculations necessary to support delivery. The Ministry of Justice also routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prison population and prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.